Issue #5: There has been inconsistent or improper application of statistics It was brought to the attention of the Superintendent that by going to the CT Department of Education website, sorting the 2009 CMT results for 3rd grade and applying known kindergarten program types to each of the schools, reveals relevant information that should be considered.
- That DOE data shows that 6 out of the top 10 3rd grade CMT math performance schools only offer half-day Kindergarten, and only 1 out of the top 10 3rd grade CMT math performance schools offer full-day Kindergarten. (Similar results are found for reading and writing scores.) This data might be used to illustrate that there are plenty of highly performing Hebron students who attended half-day Kindergarten.
- On her blog entry dated January 27, 2010, the Superintendent’s response to the above observation was: “I have never seen research that has correlated the CMT's with program decisions such as All-Day K. There are simply too many variables to consider.”
- Conversely the Proposed Budget presentation states data on the economic outcomes related to preschool attendance, and links it to increased home ownership and “never on welfare as adult”. It would seem reasonable to assume that there are considerably more variables to examine when one tries to correlate preschool attendance and homeownership 20+ years down the road. It would seem more reasonable to compare Kindergarten program type (half-day versus full-day) with its direct relationship to 3rd grade standardized test scores.
- In the presentation slides related to class size, data was presented that indicates reduced class size has been proven to lead to significant long-term differences in college attendance. Unless Hebron has identified a problem or short fall in its goals for college attendance, this is not a relevant statistic for discussion of this year’s budget.
- >The Superintendent’s Blog stated: “38% of our students come to school lagging in language, social and vocabulary skill.” It should be noted that getting this type of information from the Superintendent is definitely a step in the right direction. It appears that this is actual Hebron data instead of data about a completely different community with completely different social and economic issues.
- However, if you are not intimately familiar with early childhood education, you would have no idea what at 38% “lagging” number says about full-day versus half-day Kindergarten. The proper statistical information would be: how many students are STILL lagging in these skills AFTER half-day Kindergarten? How long was their lag perpetuated (all the way through first grade, second grade, forever, etc.)? If there is a significant lag, how is the school addressing it? Are those students given extra help? Is that extra help effective? How much does that cost?
Other examples abound, but hopefully this is enough to get an understanding of the issue.
Hebron needs to consider actual, relevant statistics that support actual, relevant goals.
Presenting all this other, irrelevant information gives the appearance of smoke and mirrors, making the jobs of our Selectmen and Finance Board members that much more difficult.
When questions remain unanswered, or issues are clouded, the voting public tends to scrutinize every line item of a budget to see what other questions are also unanswered. We’ve seen this before in Hebron. In tough economic times, with unanswered questions or unreliable data supporting a request for more and more taxes, a significant number will vote “No” at referendum.
You may be interested in reading a 2005 study conducted by the New York State Education Department, Fiscal Analysis & Research Unit, entitled “School Budget Failures: Risk Factors.” This study can be found at http://www.oms.nysed.gov/faru/Articles/School_Budget_Failures/svbudgetresearch_note.htm.
The report, which studied affluent New York communities versus other communities, made a particularly revealing observation:
“Nevertheless the findings here suggest that school district officials and school board members would be wise to take the risk factors identified by the analysis into account as they prepare budgets and present information to voters.”
“Basically, the regression analysis indicates that for every one percentage point increase in the proposed tax levy, the percentage voting "no" increases by 1.2 percentage points. This "tax levy effect" is substantially larger than any other measure (Beta=0.45) — almost twice as large as the next most important effect.”